Is Apple to stop selling music downloads?

As music downloads become less profitable, the speculation grows that Apple will drop selling downloads and switch solely to streaming within two to three years.

It is not the first time that this rumour has done its rounds. In May, Apple was strenuously denying any such plans were even being considered.

But speculation has persisted as downloads continued to drop by 14% a year in the US, according to Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) figures. In 2016, that has accelerated: in the first six months, single track download sales fell by 24%, and albums by 18%.

Globally the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI) reported that last year, the subscription value of streaming services reached $68 million, a growth of 66% from 2014.

What triggered the latest rumours was the incorrect story that Apple had scrapped download options in South Korea where it launched in early August. The reality is that Apple never offered downloads in that country – the eighth largest music market in the world – because of complicated copyright laws, and the fact that music in South Korea is dominated by local companies. Apple also has no download options in China for the same reasons.

Apple does not divulge specific figures on download and streaming revenues. But analysts suggest that streaming is the only way to go, and downloads will soon become financially unviable for the tech giant.

Just when that happens, and when Apple makes its decision before it reaches that point, remains to be seen. After all, Apple is highly image conscious. It might still be making money from downloads but they have an uncool whiff about them, which might hasten the move to distance itself from the service.

Whether Apple switches downloads off in one global swoop, or trials a close-off in countries where streaming’s growth is most intense, is also something that analysts are discussing.

Apple Music, meantime, continues to move ahead in its attempts to play catch=up with Spotify. It is now in 114 countries after launching in Israel last week, and its song catalogue has moved past the 40 million mark. It continues to grab exclusives from the likes of Britney Spears, Katy Perry and DJ Khaled, and is paving the way for more such deals by investing in the audio and visual content of major superstars.

Its recent announcement of green-lighting 16 episodes of the Carpool Karaoke spinoff – in which superstars will be belting out favourite songs while driving to favourite places – will create a closer connection with major music names.

Also coming in a few months is the long-awaited Apple app, with a sharper looking interface and quicker navigating process. Users are reminded of the music they recently discovered via the new Recently Added feature. They can add to their playlists songs they hear on Beats 1 by just clicking a button.

The For You section will have a playlist, refreshed each week, of new songs that the user might like. They also get lists of artists similar to their fave acts, as well as charts and a register of latest releases. For the first time, users can also inform Apple of which tracks they dislike, making curated choices far more effective.