Headliner crisis for rock festivals?
As Britain enters its summer festival season, the indications are that festivals remain strong drawcards in the territory. This year there are 250 being held around the nation, up from 80 in 2004.
Among examples, Glastonbury drew nearly 200,000, with all £225 tickets snapped up in 26 minutes. Isle of Wight had an estimated 50,000. The upcoming Reading is expected to hit its 87,000-capacity and its sister event Leeds is to fill out its site space for 75,000.
But The Economist sees a dark cloud on the horizon. It pointed out that while rock festivals have a diversity of age group acts on their bills, there are not enough big headliners to go around. This problem has already hit Australian festivals for some years, and is expected to intensify in the next few years in Britain.
The piece quoted figures supplied by Spotify’s Director of Economics, Will Page, who said that the average age of headline acts at nine festivals in Britain has gradually risen – from 31 in 1996 to 43 in 2015.
Part of the reason for this could be that punters themselves are ageing. According to trade publication Festival Insights, in 2014 the average age of a festival-goer was 33. New research by over-fifties insurance specialist Staysure found that two-thirds of those it researched (including 28% of over-70s) plan to attend festivals this northern summer. Another 67% of that demographic want to go for the first time.
Or it could be that the back-to-back hits heritage acts like Paul McCartney, The Who, Fleetwood Mac, Billy Joel and AC/DC – all of whom headlined festivals this year – are still out there playing as most of their income comes from concerts rather than record sales. This, said The Economist, makes it harder for younger acts to move up the ranks to top slot. Add to this that the digital consumption of music has focussed on tracks rather than albums. It means younger acts no longer have the sort of audience loyalty that allowed Radiohead to headline Glastonbury ten years ago.
According to music experts that The Economist spoke to, the gradual narrowing of the number of major headliners could lead to a change in the landscape.
Promoters will have to scale down the size of their festivals, or they may have to opt to have a number of mid-sized headliners than go for a big time supa-duper multi-generational one to touch as many bases as possible. The scenario fits in with changes that have already begun for festivals around the world: the days of the travelling festival are virtually over, and more promoters predict that the rock festival of the future will have live music only as part of the overall experience.
This theory only applies to rock festivals, others point out. EDM festivals are also booming business. Ultra, Tomorowland and Electric Daisy Carnival, for instance, draw between 300,000 to 360,000 each. Their audiences are younger (55% of EDM fans are under 25). EDM superstars are younger too: Avicii, Skrillex and Afrojack in their 20s, Calvin Harris, Deadmau5, Steve Aoki and Armin Van Buuren in their 30s, and David Guetta and Tiesto in their late 40s.
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