Anyone can predict an ARIA winner, but here are Spotify’s data-backed picks

It’s therace that has more “experts” weighing in than the Melbourne Cup – ARIA Awards night.

But Spotify believes they have the secret ingredient when it comes to picking a winner… good ol’ fashioned data.

Spotify has analysed local streamingnumbers to try to predict the winners of seven key categories this year, using Australian streaming data from the ARIA’s voting period(September 2 to September 7) Spotify ranking artists, songs and albums based on highest amount of streams for each category.

Illy is predicted to have a big night off the back of his fifth studio album Two Degrees; Spotify’s data suggests he may take home Album of the Year and Best Male Artist.

Based on streams, internationally acclaimed songstress, Siacould be set to take homeBest Female Artist, while rising star (and supporting act for SIA on her upcoming Australian tour) Amy Shark could be in line to win 2017’s Breakthrough Artist award.

Electronic duo Peking Duk is predicted to pick up the gong for Best Group, while PNAUcould be poised to take the award for Song of the Year with ‘Chameleon’.

In what is sure to be unsurprising news, Ed Sheeran is pegged to win 2017’s Best International Artist – thanks in part to the release his chart-topping single ‘Shape Of You’, which became the most streamed song on Spotify (1.4 billion global streams and counting).

Spotify AUNZ Senior Editor Alicia Sbrugnera also has her eye on the likes of Dan Sultan and Paul Kellyas potential winners, but as she told TMN, it’s supporting local acts that is the focus of the evening.

“Spotify has been largely credited with returning the global music industry to growth, providing a frictionless, barrier-free way for music fans across the globe to access more music than ever before.

“As we can continue to scale, our priority is certainly to nurture and support Australian music talent, amplify their story and connect them to their fans, both on a local level and to our 140 million active listeners globally.

“While our audience love Ed, Drake, Bieber and Rihanna etc, a big priority for me and our local team is focused on surfacing the best Australian music into high profile and/or relevant playlists both here and abroad.

“In terms of the hardest category to predict, the answer was easy for Sbrugnera – Best International Artist.

“[It’s] difficult to attempt predicting based purely on our listening data as it is a publicly-voted award factoring in engagement on Twitter.

“This award may be skewed more towards those artists that have the most socially active and engaged fans, which does not always match up to the artist with the most streams.”