Global music revenue could plummet 25% this year [report]

Global music revenue could drop as much as 25% this year due to the health crisis and its impact on the economy, according to new analysis by Goldman Sachs.

The investment bankers released its updated Music in the Air report this week, which spotlights the dramatic decline of income from the concert and live performance sector.

Event cancellations and postponements in Australia, including Groovin The Moo, Download and Bluesfest, have already lost the sector $340 million, according to I Lost My Gig.

Goldman Sachs reduced its pre-pandemic earnings estimates for live music by more than 75%.

The US-based finance powerhouse also expects both publishing and recorded music revenue to experience a decline of 5% and 8% respectively, on their previous projections.

The amended figures would indicate a total global music revenue of US$57.5 billion in 2020, notably less than the $75 billion generated last year, but the hope is not lost.

TMN understands that recorded revenue hasn’t seen a notable decline in Australia during the pandemic, with minimal movement when compared previous years.

ARIA chief executive officer,  Dan Rosen, acknowledged the impact of coronavirus on the recorded music industry but said he remains confident in Australian music consumers.

“There is no doubt that the COVID-19 crisis has presented significant challenges for the Australian music industry,” Rosen told TMN over email on Wednesday.

“Our industry is robust and innovative and is continuing to adjust to the new circumstances.

“It is heartening to see continued strong consumer engagement with subscription streaming platforms and an increase in music fans buying directly from artist websites over this period.”

Some of that spirit was echoed in the Goldman Sachs report, with analysts confident in music’s ability to recover and continue growing in 2021 and beyond.

Lisa Yang, a senior researcher at Goldman Sachs and author of Music in the Air, said streaming-capable devices like smart speakers and new apps like TikTok offers hope on future earnings.

Yang predicts recorded music will produce $80 billion worth of annual income by 2030, whereas live music would generate $38 billion and publishing $12.5 billion annually.